{"id":157856,"date":"2025-07-25T14:31:42","date_gmt":"2025-07-25T14:31:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.pv-tech.org\/?p=157856"},"modified":"2025-07-25T14:31:44","modified_gmt":"2025-07-25T14:31:44","slug":"whats-the-next-growth-frontier-for-chinas-pv-industry","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.pv-tech.org\/whats-the-next-growth-frontier-for-chinas-pv-industry\/","title":{"rendered":"What\u2019s the next growth frontier for China\u2019s PV industry?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"Modules
The PV modules on show at SNEC revealed companies rolling out premium, high-efficiency products in a bid to return to profitability. Image: PV Tech.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Since early 2024, China\u2019s module manufacturers have been fighting for survival amid brutal market conditions. At the recent SNEC expo in Shanghai, Carrie Xiao took the temperature of the industry as it seeks a way out of the current doom loop of cutthroat competition and squeezed margins.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

Data from the China PV Industry Association shows that in 2025, tunnel oxide passivated contact (TOPCon) cells are expected to account for 71.1% of China\u2019s market share, thereby becoming the mainstream technology for n-type cells. The combined market share of n-type cystalling-silicon (c-Si) cells (i.e., TOPCon + HJT + BC) will exceed 96.9%, marking 2025 as the period of saturation for n-type mono c-Si technology.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The technological dividend of passivated emitter rear contact (PERC) spanned over a decade from 2013 to 2023, while TOPCon achieved full industry coverage in China in less than three years. Over the past two years, its capacity has rapidly expanded, significantly squeezing profit margins. Amid fierce internal competition, how to survive in the ‘red ocean’ of technology and price wars while prolonging the TOPCon dividend cycle has become a critical challenge for many PV companies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Current business: the cutthroat battle for survival in PV manufacturing<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jinko Solar, a staunch advocate of TOPCon modules, never anticipated reaping the technology\u2019s benefits within just two years. Li Xiande, chairman of Jinko Solar, stated: \u201cOver the past 180 days, everyone in the industry has been asking how to \u2018survive\u2019, but my takeaway is that we should think about how to \u2018revive\u2019 and find our own pace.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The pace Jinko Solar is chasing hinges on enhancing the performance of its TOPCon 3.0 products. Qian Jing, vice president of Jinko Solar, explained that TOPCon products will soon undergo market segmentation, with 650W as the threshold. Mass-produced 650W+ TOPCon modules will secure the ability to set premium pricing power to challenge back contact (BC) technology in distributed
markets. Sub-650W modules will become commoditised products. \u201cCompanies that adopt premium high-efficiency products faster will accelerate their return to profitability,\u201d she emphasised.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To stay ahead in the new competitive landscape, Jinko Solar is speeding up mass production and delivery of its next-generation 3.0 products. Recently, Jinko Solar has formed strategic partnerships with PowerChina and overseas companies, including DIWAN International, Mesol Solar and Salim Winding, aiming to accelerate the global rollout of its new n-type TOPCon module, the Tiger Neo 3.0.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The underlying message of these high-profile agreements is that the Tiger Neo 3.0 module has transitioned from product launch to mass supply, demonstrating its readiness for large-scale global delivery. Jinko Solar stated that by the end of 2025, the total capacity for 640Wp+ products, including Tiger Neo 3.0, is expected to reach 40-50GW. The proportion of high-power modules with 650Wp and above will reach 40-50%, corresponding to a production capacity of about 20GW.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Confronting current manufacturing challenges, Astronergy, another TOPCon technology adopter, has established a clear strategy: optimising production, reducing costs, cutting capital expenditures, tightening expense control and maintaining peak capacity utilisation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cCurrently, our operating rate remains around 80%, outperforming the industry average,\u201d said Lu Chuan, chairman and president of Astronergy. In the present market environment, both industry leaders and other market participants, and most module material manufacturers in general, are grappling with profit margins so tight that they severely constrain large-scale technological innovation. At this juncture, technological upgrades with shorter payback periods prove more viable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Astronergy broke even in 2024. Despite facing manufacturing pressures this year, the company has persisted in pursuing technical upgrades while venturing into new technological frontiers. At this year\u2019s SNEC, Astronergy unveiled high-efficiency TOPCon modules including ASTRO N7, ASTRO N7 Pro and the ASTRO N8 Pro, which exceeds 800W+. Both the ASTRO N7 Pro and ASTRO N8 Pro modules employ multi-wafer cutting technology.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lu Chuan elaborated: \u201cMulti-wafer cutting technology significantly reduces internal current by further optimising cell dimensions. Coupled with enhanced edge passivation techniques, it effectively boosts module output. The industry is exploring the most cost-effective cutting solutions, which hinge on fundamental design and process optimisations. Once these solutions are validated, there will be no major technical hurdles to mass production.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Technological innovation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Regarding BC technology, Lu was candid: \u201cWe also operate a BC pilot production line. It\u2019s a platform technology that can integrate with TOPCon, HJT, or even traditional PERC. Our strategy for BC is to maintain technical reserves, but mass production will ultimately depend on its actual market value. Currently, most BC-based products in the market have not shown substantially greater user-side value compared to TOPCon modules.\u201d Unlike Jinko Solar and Astronergy, which continue to upgrade TOPCon technology, companies like Aiko Solar and LONGi Green are aggressively promoting BC technology, positioning it as a high-value business model and viewing it as the prime business opportunity in the current market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to module shipment data, Aiko Solar\u2019s all back contact (ABC) module shipments hit 6.33GW in 2024, representing approximately 1,200% year-on-year growth. In Q1 2025, the company shipped 4.54GW of ABC modules, surging by over 500% year-on-year (from Q1 2024) and posting a 40%+ quarter-on-quarter increase. \u201cPrior to Q3 2024, the global market was sceptical about BC modules \u2013 customers were hesitant to make purchases, but as real-world applications validated their performance, sales gradually gained momentum,\u201d said Chen Gang, chairman of Aiko Solar, in an interview with PV Tech.<\/em> \u201cWe\u2019ve spent three years cultivating BC products, and our efforts are now bearing fruit as the market has transitioned from a latent phase to a growth phase, culminating in this quarter\u2019s explosive performance.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He noted that ABC modules have penetrated high-value markets, where customer acceptance has exceeded expectations, with overseas sales now accounting for 50% of total revenue. Riding on the current positive shipment momentum, Chen Gang remarked that the company targets overall financial improvement in 2025, aiming to become one of the first PV companies to navigate the industry\u2019s transition cycle successfully.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

During SNEC 2025, Li Zhenguo, founder of LONGi Green, made his first public appearance in his new role as the company\u2019s CTO. He noted that the industry had entered a phase of profound adjustment, marked by significant business model transformations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIn technological innovation, when an industry faces supply shortages, technology diffusion rarely undermines innovators. However, when overcapacity sets in, this diffusion turns genuinely damaging.\u201d Li said. \u201cTo navigate the PV industry\u2019s cycles, companies must not only pursue technological innovation with partners, but more crucially, safeguard these innovations to ensure early investors can rightfully share in the ultimate rewards.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For the past year, LONGi Green has dedicated itself to building a BC ecosystem. Li stressed: \u201cNo single player can master every segment.\u201d Over the past years, constrained by supply short\u0002ages and an underdeveloped ecosystem, some firms attempted to vertically integrate the entire industrial chain. This resulted in near-universal vertical integration across the sector – an approach that proved fundamentally misaligned with the healthy development of China\u2019s PV industry. We must collaborate with capable, like-minded partners in each segment to properly build the BC technology ecosystem.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Beyond TOPCon and BC, leading HJT companies are also accelerating commercialisation through upstream-downstream collaboration. Recently, Huasun Solar signed multiple strategic agreements with global partners spanning the entire value chain from R&D, material and equipment, application scenarios to standard certification and market deployment. By integrating the full value chain of \u201ctechnology development – application scenarios – standard setting – global implementation,\u201d the company seeks to accelerate large-scale HJT adoption.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The next frontier in technology business: different paths, same destination?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In reality, TOPCon, HJT, and extended back contact (XBC) each have distinct advantages and disadvantages. Yet regardless of the technological pathway, all are converging on the same goal: perovskite-silicon tandem technology.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Perovskite technology primarily encompasses three development paths: single-junction perovskite, perovskite-silicon tandem and perovskite-perovskite tandem. Recent strategic moves show that leading c-Si players like Trina Solar, GCL, LONGi Green, Jinko Solar and Huasun Solar are increasingly embracing
the perovskite-silicon tandem pathway.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This year\u2019s SNEC further validated this trend, with each company\u2019s top-tier dual-high (high-power, high-efficiency) products all stemming from a combination of n-type c-Si and perovskite technology. For example, Trina Solar\u2019s perovskite-silicon tandem module achieved an efficiency of 27.1% with a maximum output of 841W. Similarly, Huasun Solar\u2019s HJT-perovskite tandem module achieved 800W output using G12 wafers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

During the Expo, LONGi Green announced that its self-developed large-area (260.9cm\u00b2) perovskite-silicon tandem module had achieved a conversion efficiency of 33%, as certified by the US National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trina Solar also announced that its 1,185cm\u00b2 lab-scale tandem module had achieved 30.6% efficiency, independently certified by Germany\u2019s Fraunhofer ISE, thereby becoming the first PV company globally to surpass the 30% efficiency milestone of tandem modules.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simultaneously, Trina\u2019s self-developed large-area perovskite-silicon tandem module, with an area of 3.1m\u00b2, achieved a peak output of 829W as certified by T\u00dcV S\u00dcD\u2019s testing laboratory. Just three days later (11 June), Trina Solar once again set a new world record, boosting the output of its tandem module to 841W.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cTOPCon, BC and HJT are comparable technology pathways now,\u201d noted Gao Jifan, Trina Solar\u2019s chairman and CEO. \u201cDebates are meaningless and may only distort investment flows. Perovskite tandem cell technology will lead the industry into a new historical era.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to Trina Solar, its National Key Laboratory of PV Science and Technology has built the world\u2019s largest portfolio of perovskite solar cell patents. Since the start of this year, Trina Solar has broken world records in perovskite tandem technology five times.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cPerovskite-silicon tandem technology represents one of the core directions for the next-generation high efficiency PV sector. We will establish a perovskite pilot production line, which will simultaneously improve module efficiency by over 4%. This will propel the industry into a new era of 30%+ perovskite silicon tandem modules,\u201d said Gao Jifan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

GCL group chairman Zhu Gongshan echoed Gao Jifan\u2019s view, stating: \u201cThe TOPCon case \u2013 where technological dividends were exhausted within just two years \u2013 must never repeat itself. We must infuse technological innovation with proprietary features to extend the industry\u2019s benefit cycle. The mass-production breakthrough of perovskite cells marks a seminal event for PV technology\u2019s inflection point. Perovskite-silicon tandem modules theoretically deliver 50% higher efficiency, 20% lower cost and over 50% reduced carbon footprint compared to conventional modules. Conservatively estimated, the combined advantages in power generation, cost, and green premium will generate at least RMB2 billion (US$279 million) additional revenue per GW of modules over their lifecycle.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Recently, GCL-Perovskite\u2019s self-developed large-format perovskite tandem modules became the first to secure an IEC 61730 safety certification for PV modules after undergoing rigorous testing by T\u00dcV Rheinland.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Executives from both GCL and Trina Solar stated that by leveraging existing c-Si supply chains to accelerate deployment, they expect to achieve commercial sales of perovskite-silicon tandem modules by 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to PV Tech\u2019s<\/em> observations, alongside perovskite-silicon tandems, some companies are exclusively focused on all-perovskite tandem technology. While more technically challenging, this approach promises lower theoretical costs and higher efficiency ceilings (lab efficiencies already exceed 30%), positioning it as the \u201cultimate technological pathway\u201d. Industry consensus suggests all-perovskite tandem modules could achieve mass production around the same timeframe as perovskite-silicon tandems, but they must first overcome technical hurdles like large-area film formation and stability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As for single-junction perovskite technology, despite multiple megawatt-scale demonstration projects being deployed, applications remain nascent. Technically, while perovskites offer superior energy conversion efficiency and reliability, they are facing challenges in mass production efficiency and elevated module costs. The limited R&D efforts by individual companies have proven inadequate to drive meaningful progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

RHINO Data reports indicate that most perovskite firms are in the active financing stage, with only a handful achieving megawatt-scale mass production. With leading module manufacturers entering the market, other single-junction perovskite companies will struggle to compete and may ultimately face being eliminated or acquired.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The next frontier in end markets: from generation to consumption<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Shifting focus from manufacturing to end-use markets, against the backdrop of continuous breakthroughs in technology, installed capacity and power generation, China\u2019s PV industry is undergoing a fundamental transformation: PV companies are evolving from manufacturing-led to comprehensive energy solution providers, expanding from a \u201csingle grid-connected power generation model\u201d to a \u201cdiversified on\/off-grid power supply\u201d approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gao Jifan pointed out that PV manufacturing is no longer the company\u2019s sole profit driver. \u201cCurrently, over one-third of our business mix comes from solutions, and this proportion is expected to exceed 50% within the next two to three years. Combined with digital energy and storage businesses, we anticipate this year\u2019s performance will double compared to last year.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lu Chuan stated: \u201cWe categorise our business into six segments, which include hardware manufacturing (modules, inverters, storage) as the \u2018yesterday\u2019 business, domestic and international power plant development and operation as the \u2018today\u2019 business, and the company\u2019s future growth anchored in the \u2018tomorrow\u2019 business\u2014O&M, power trading, virtual power plants and other integrated energy services. With hardware in place, our core competitiveness lies in algorithm iteration, service capabilities, and business model innovation.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As China incorporates 100% renewable power into the market pricing mechanism, \u201cmarket-driven returns\u201d are reshaping industry development models. Zhu Gongshan remarked: \u201cSolar PV is evolving from a mere power source into a hub connecting energy production, storage and consumption. The sector is transitioning from a \u2018single grid-connected power generation model\u2019 to a \u2018hybrid on\/off-grid multi energy supply\u2019 framework. Grid-connected capacity is no longer the sole evaluation criterion in the market. We are reconstructing revenue models and expanding value boundaries through cross-sector integration. This transformation is driving PV\u2019s shift from being an \u2018energy transition participant\u2019 to a \u2018zero-carbon systems architect\u2019<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

At the SNEC expo, Carrie Xiao took the temperature of the industry as it seeks a way out of cutthroat competition and squeezed 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