{"id":149881,"date":"2025-02-10T18:10:01","date_gmt":"2025-02-10T18:10:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.pv-tech.org\/?p=149881"},"modified":"2025-02-10T18:10:03","modified_gmt":"2025-02-10T18:10:03","slug":"the-hope-and-hype-of-commercial-perovskites","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.pv-tech.org\/the-hope-and-hype-of-commercial-perovskites\/","title":{"rendered":"The hope and hype of commercial perovskites"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/www.pv-tech.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Fraunhofer-ISE_Pero-Si-Module-with-person-1024x683.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-149882\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.pv-tech.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Fraunhofer-ISE_Pero-Si-Module-with-person-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.pv-tech.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Fraunhofer-ISE_Pero-Si-Module-with-person-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.pv-tech.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Fraunhofer-ISE_Pero-Si-Module-with-person-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.pv-tech.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Fraunhofer-ISE_Pero-Si-Module-with-person.jpg 1200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">The solar industry is watching to see if the emerging generation of perovskite-based PV. Credit: Fraunhofer ISE.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>This year has seen the race to market for perovskite-based PV modules heat up with the first commercial shipment announced. Will Norman asks if mass-scale deployment of perovskite technology is now imminent and whether it could unseat crystalline silicon as the dominant solar technology.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In September 2024, British perovskite tandem solar company Oxford PV shipped the world\u2019s first commercial tandem solar modules. CEO David Ward heralded the moment as \u201ca breakthrough for the energy industry\u201d that would open the door to readily available, higher-efficiency solar products.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As a dedicated perovskite firm, Oxford PV has bet proportionally more on perovskite as the \u201cnext big thing\u201d in solar technology than almost anyone else, but they have by no means been alone in their efforts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Attending the Intersolar Europe conference earlier this year, PV Tech Power saw perovskite offerings from almost all the major solar manufacturers and a wide range of smaller ones.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Shortly thereafter, the 15th edition of the International Technology Roadmap for Photovoltaics (ITRPV) forecast that silicon-based tandem solar modules with 27% conversion efficiency would enter the mass market in 2027.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Effectively every major solar manufacturer has funded or been involved in research projects looking at perovskite-silicon tandem cell structures, from thousands-strong Chinese research and development (R&amp;D) teams to European Union-funded projects involving technical institutions and universities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Perovskite has become a white whale for the solar industry. It promises far higher light conversion efficiencies and less energy-intensive production than current silicon products, which could transform global solar module production and performance. But attaining those things means taming perovskite\u2019s volatile nature, a feat that has so far eluded the industry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This article draws on comments from leading figures in perovskite research and its sceptics to examine the technology, its possible commercialisation and the challenges the material poses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-technology\"><strong>The technology<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Calcium titanate \u2013 more widely known as Perovskite \u2013 was first discovered in 1839 in the Ural Mountains. 170 years later, in 2009, its first application in a solar cell was reported by Tsumoto Miyasaka in Japan. This was a small, ink-based perovskite cell with around 3% efficiency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Since then, a number of other materials similar to calcium titanate have been deployed in increasingly efficient solar cell configurations, which now reach up to the low 30 percents. This is a rapid technological evolution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The most common iteration today is the perovskite-silicon tandem cell, which layers crystalline silicon technology and perovskites in a single cell. Generally, the perovskite layer sits on top of the base layer and increases the range of light that the cell can absorb and turn into power.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThere\u2019s thin-film technology such as cadmium telluride and there\u2019s waferbased [silicon] technology,\u201d says Fabian Fertig, director of global R&amp;D for wafers and cells at the German base of Korean-owned solar manufacturer Hanwha Qcells. \u201cBoth of these have a single junction and the theoretical efficiency potential is somewhere south of 30%.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A junction is where electrical currents flow in a solar cell, between the positive and negatively charged layers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Fertig continues: \u201cThen you can look at different tandem configurations, and in principle, you can combine anything which has two different band gaps.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A band gap determines the range of the light spectrum which a material can convert into electrical current. \u201cIt depends on how well this matches the solar spectrum to determine the efficiency potential,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThe advantage of perovskite is that the band gap is relatively widely tunable. By using different compositions in how you put your crystal together, you can absorb different light energies over a pretty wide range. The combined band gap of silicon \u2013 which is fixed \u2013 together with the tunable top cell band gap is pretty close to the theoretical optimum for any solar cell with two junctions.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-variations-on-a-theme\"><strong>Variations on a theme<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Fertig is involved in the PEPPERONI project, an EU-funded scheme developing a pilot line for silicon-perovskite tandem cell and module production. The project uses Q.ANTUM technology developed by Qcells for its silicon bottom cell, which has proven long-term durability over many years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cSilicon has shown it\u2019s mature and is dominating the world market, so you can use this manufacturing base, then build a solar cell on top and then chuck this into a system with high efficiency. We see that as the most promising option at the moment,\u201d Fertig says.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The PEPPERONI project is working on a two-terminal tandem cell, rather than a four-terminal product. Two-terminal tandems lay perovskite directly onto a silicon base layer within the same cell; four-terminal products fabricate a thin-film cell for the perovskite and pair that with a separate silicon-based cell.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Fertig explains that this decision is aimed at functionality and scaling into significant manufacturing: \u201cWe manufacture Q.ANTUM technology, which is dominating the world market [along with other silicon products]. So our approach is to use this as the bottom cell with the perovskite directly on top \u2013 that way, you can use similar module design, similar system components, etc., to move forward.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"684\" src=\"https:\/\/www.pv-tech.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Image-2-Oxford-PV-1024x684.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-149883\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.pv-tech.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Image-2-Oxford-PV-1024x684.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.pv-tech.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Image-2-Oxford-PV-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.pv-tech.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Image-2-Oxford-PV-768x513.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.pv-tech.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Image-2-Oxford-PV.jpg 1198w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Oxford PV\u2019s approach is to layer perovskite over a heterojunction bottom cell. Image: Oxford PV.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Oxford PV, which <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pv-tech.org\/oxford-pv-ships-first-commercial-perovskite-tandem-modules\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">shipped the first commercial perovskite tandem modules<\/a> earlier last year, has also adopted two-terminal tandem technology because of its scalability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to deputy CTO Ed Crossland, having originally worked on a perovskite-only product, the company \u201cdecided early on to piggyback on silicon technology\u201d and create tandem cells.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Crossland says of the advantage of the two-terminal approach: \u201cApart from the production simplicity, it looks exactly like the cell did before, so you can then more easily integrate that cell technology into existing module technologies for silicon.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Oxford PV\u2019s current technology is based on a heterojunction technology (HJT) bottom cell. \u201cThe heterojunction cell\u2026has the simplest integration with a thin-film tandem,\u201d he says. \u201cWhen you take a two-terminal approach, the two cells need to be electronically linked together, and the heterojunction cell is very well suited to that. It already has the right conducting top electrodes to integrate a thin film tandem on top of.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Crossland explains there was also an element of timing in the decision, as HJT seemed to be emerging as the dominant high-efficiency technology when Oxford PV was developing its tandem modules.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cIn the meantime\u2026TOPCon technology has come in and you can get very close to \u2013 maybe even as good as \u2013 those heterojunction potentials. But it turns out that there are ways now that have been developed and are not actually that tricky which make TOPCon a compatible bottom cell with perovskite as the thin film absorber.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-alternative-routes\"><strong>Alternative routes<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>US-based perovskite firm Caelux produces a perovskite-layered glass product, which it says can be applied to silicon modules. It\u2019s a four-terminal product which the company claims can be combined with any crystalline silicon base cell.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cCaelux believes that four-terminal devices are more cost-effective and easier to scale than two-terminal devices and avoid a key pitfall of two-terminal architectures \u2013 current matching,\u201d says Caelux CEO Scott Graybeal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWe do not have to engineer the substrate \u2013 it already exists in the form of readily available industrial float glass and we can work with any crystalline silicon cell type, which means we have a very large market.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Graybeal claims that Caelux\u2019s technology is \u201cthe lowest cost path to produce high-efficiency, durable perovskite cells\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Opinion differs on this technological point. Crossland addresses the \u201cpitfall\u201d of current matching in his explanation of Oxford PV\u2019s decision to choose two-terminal products:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWhen you stack two cells that are directly integrated, you need to have the same current flowing through the two things because they\u2019re in series. In doing that you limit the absolute theoretical limit [of efficiency] you can get to. But that\u2019s a relatively minor limitation compared with the advantages you get with a two-terminal integration.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Technology such as Caelux\u2019s, with its one-size-fits-all style adaptation to existing module technologies, could ease the adoption of perovskite technology into silicon solar production. However, the major players in the space have mostly opted for dedicated perovskite-silicon tandem cells rather than active glass because of their adaptability to large-scale production.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-stability-the-nut-to-crack\"><strong>Stability &#8211; \u2018The nut to crack\u2019<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Crossland says that the first perovskite cells in university labs, usually around the size of a fingernail, had a lifetime of about an hour before there would be noticeable degradation in their performance. This is the factor that, more than any other, has held back perovskite-based solar products from entering the commercial mainstream. The material degrades when exposed to oxygen and moisture at a rate that has made it uncompetitive with silicon products, which can operate with very gradual degradation for 25-30 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Crossland says this means perovskite encapsulation requirements are far higher than other thin-film and silicon technologies, and tandem modules will need to be encapsulated in double glass, rather than using a back sheet on the rear of the product.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>These represent two separate concerns in the product development process, which Crossland dubs \u201cAtom to module\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWe\u2019ve got R&amp;D teams which work on the fundamental stability of the perovskite absorber, understanding which chemical degradation routes exist and how you can improve them,\u201d he says, \u201cAll the way up to the module manufacturing process, where you need to be careful what ambient moisture and exposure are given to the perovskite material if you want to end up with a cell and a module which is stable once it is encapsulated.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The encapsulants themselves have been the subject of lab research, too. \u201cIn the early days, you couldn\u2019t reach 100 degrees in your post-processing before the perovskite absorber had problems,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThat really limits what encapsulation method you can apply to your technology. So we\u2019ve gone through the dual process of finding encapsulation materials that work in the 150-degree range and making the absorber and active materials inside the device intrinsically stable to those process temperatures so that they meet in the middle. You end up with a module technology that can be encapsulated to a degree that gives you a field lifetime as good as required.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Innovations aside, the material\u2019s stability still looms as a large caveat with every new perovskite or tandem cell efficiency record. Emily Warren, a scientist at the US National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), says that stability is now more important than efficiency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWe would rather have a record stability than record efficiency,\u201d she says. \u201cAll the researchers need to ask if they want this to be a real technology. That means it needs to be sustainable and able to be manufactured reproducibly &#8211; and does that change your research versus trying to get a new efficiency and get [on the] cover of a journal?\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-route-to-commercialisation\"><strong>The route to commercialisation<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>A March 2024 paper from NREL lays out a list of \u201cdevelopment needs\u201d for perovskite products to come to mass market. Based on the ITRPV roadmap, it posits that cell and module R&amp;D, reliability and scaling efforts, manufacturing developments and deployment evaluations need to be undertaken in tandem to get the technology out of the lab and into the real world.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This relies on collaboration and consortia like the PEPPERONI project and harnessing the infrastructure and technology of mature PV technologies. This is the principle behind choosing the two-terminal silicon-tandem technologies discussed above.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Crossland claims that everything Oxford PV does is ultimately geared toward large-scale production. \u201cLike with the two-terminal selection\u2026we would apply thin-film scaling techniques and tools that already existed, so many of the problems you\u2019d have to solve with something new were already solved. Wherever possible, we picked scalable processes that were already there.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-we-want-to-move-past-silicon\"><strong>\u201cWe want to move past silicon\u201d<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>During the production process of this magazine, researchers from the University of Surrey in the UK published findings that they claimed increased the stability of perovskite-perovskite tandem solar cells.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Pure perovskite products are the next frontier after silicon-perovskite tandems. They offer even higher efficiencies than tandem products, as they are unbound by silicon\u2019s fundamental physical limits, but also untethered from its physical reliability. Where silicon tandem products have recently begun to meet the market, perovskite-perovskite solar is at the cutting edge of research.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cUltimately, we want to move past silicon\u201d, says Hashini Perera of the Advanced Technology Institute at the University of Surrey, lead author of the recent research. \u201cThe whole reason we are talking about perovskite is that the extraction of silicon is an energy-intensive process and the cost factor is there.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cSilicon has already proven it can be stable for 25 years\u2026 so if we want to replace it, we need a perovskite which can do the same job.\u201d As well as stability, this perovskite also needs work on a narrow band gap to absorb the same range of light as silicon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Perera\u2019s research used a perovskite with both lead and tin added, which she says is needed to achieve a narrow band gap. But tin oxidises quickly, which can reduce cell efficiency and stability. The findings showed that a particular additive (thiocyanate), which had been added to perovskiteperovskite cells for years to stabilise their performance in lab conditions could actually accelerate the degradation of cells in real-world surroundings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The findings encapsulate the central question of all perovskites: efficiencies vs durability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cIf it is in a very inert environment, the additive can improve performance, but if there is even the slightest bit of moisture ingress it can kill the device,\u201d Perera says.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThe additive was added to improve the performance, but when you test the stability it is degrading much faster than without the additive.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Perera\u2019s paper claims to have extended the lifespan of perovskite-perovskite cells by up to 60%; potentially a significant step towards the next frontier of cell technology.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For example, he says that thin-film and silicon manufacturing have increased productivity massively in recent years, \u201cessentially by making the tools bigger. So you can coat [deposition materials] on a bigger area, and you get more wafers per hour\u2026your productivity goes up, your unit cost goes down. We\u2019ve already started with platforms which are essentially smaller versions of those tools.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Oxford PV has said it plans to establish gigawatt-scale manufacturing at its facility in Brandenburg, Germany, which would be the first mass production of perovskite tandems anywhere.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Broad collaboration will also be important. Warren, one of the authors of the NREL paper above, tells PV Tech Power that reliable product testing and available data around perovskite tandems will be an important part of the commercialisation process.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cAt the end of the day, anyone who is going to install a solar array is interested in the total amount of kilowatt hours of electricity made. That is not [cell] efficiency,\u201d she says. Important data like the LCOE of a PV project are tied to predicting how a product or technology will perform in a given environment over its lifespan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThere\u2019s a whole industry that exists for energy yield prediction,\u201d she says, \u201cThe problem is that none of the tools available right now incorporate the differences of having a tandem, where you have two different band gaps and two different materials within a module.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Such a tool would allow tandem solar products to answer the inevitable questions posed by technology backers and financiers\u2014namely: \u201c How much energy will this produce?\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cAll thin-film materials [including perovskites] show some level of metastability. That makes it extra hard,\u201d Warren says. \u201cIt\u2019s not the same as silicon where you can model it once, and it will be the same today, tomorrow and the next day. That\u2019s never true in a thin film.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Warren says she would like to see a third-party validation and testing system for perovskite tandem products to allow the technology to progress. \u201cThe community needs data sets of how these things are performing to make sure we can predict how the next one will perform,\u201d she says.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ed Crossland says similarly: \u201cYou do better when you collaborate. We\u2019re engaging with partners by licensing our IP\u2026partnerships with development, partnerships with production, and I think that\u2019s the right way to approach rapid deployment of this technology.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-early-markets\"><strong>Early markets<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Fertig insists that there is no reason the potential of laboratory perovskite products can\u2019t be replicated on more commercially viable products. He says the efficiency is clearly there, but questions remain over durability and cost\u2014but those questions are not unanswerable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWe will have to see if all market segments require the same long-term stability as silicon, or whether there might be some which say they can accept a higher performance without the same reliability requirements,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Niche applications like aerospace or flexible products, where modules need to be as efficient as possible relative to both size and weight, would be logical steps for perovskite technology. But those products represent a vanishingly small blip on a map of the global solar market. Stepping into rooftop and, ultimately, utility-scale deployments is a different challenge altogether.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-is-perovskite-the-next-c-si\"><strong>Is perovskite the next c-si?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Silicon technology has become incredibly cheap and abundant and has emerged as the dominant energy transition technology. It\u2019s unclear whether perovskite has the potential to take over that mantle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For Fertig, the outlook is simple: \u201cEither it will be competitive, or it won\u2019t.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cIn the history of PV there has always been a product that\u2019s been dominating the market. Then, at some point, a new technology comes around, and either it\u2019s superior to the old technology or it\u2019s not. The latest example is TOPCon.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Perovskite\u2019s higher efficiencies can push past the limits of silicon, which Fertig says could dethrone the old technology.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Crossland is more strident; \u201cOf course it will be the dominant technology. Why wouldn\u2019t it be? Why wouldn\u2019t you pick a higher efficiency technology that fits inside the same product form that you have before?\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Oxford PV is aiming for a 1% annual degradation rate in its tandem modules, which it has yet to achieve. But Crossland says there is no fundamental reason why perovskite tandem cannot become the next dominant technology: \u201cWe have proof of principle in small areas that we can reach those kinds of annual degradation rates \u2013 not yet in the full product, but we will do it.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"575\" src=\"https:\/\/www.pv-tech.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Image-3-Oxford-PV-1024x575.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-149884\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.pv-tech.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Image-3-Oxford-PV-1024x575.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.pv-tech.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Image-3-Oxford-PV-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.pv-tech.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Image-3-Oxford-PV-768x431.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.pv-tech.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Image-3-Oxford-PV.jpg 1280w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Oxford PV has shipped the first commercial batch of tandem perovskite modules, but the technology\u2019s ability to rival the dominance of c-Si is a hotly debated topic. Image: Oxford PV.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>For Warren, perovskite tandem products offer a way to diversify the global solar supply chain and ease the pressure that has arisen through its overwhelming reliance on one material (polysilicon) produced in a few locations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThe final product is a really big, flat thing which contains glass,\u201d she says. \u201cMaking that locally seems like a good idea.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cPerovskite and other thin-film technologies have a different supply chain and manufacturing footprint. We need a lot of material to continue the growth trajectory of solar, so I would say that I\u2019m in favour of all the technologies. [Perovskite] is not necessarily going to displace silicon any time soon, but having a more diverse supply chain is going to greatly enhance the ability of the PV industry to grow.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Radovan Kopecek, the founder of ISC Konstanz and a long-standing figure in the crystalline silicon manufacturing industry, is sceptical, denouncing what he describes as \u201cperovskite populists\u201d who have grabbed headlines with efficiency records that have yet to bear any industrial fruit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cIt\u2019s easier to sell efficiencies than complex bankability,\u201d he says. \u201cPeople say when there\u2019s a 27% efficiency module everyone will buy it \u2013 it\u2019s nonsense. You have to look at the whole picture.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Kopecek\u2019s argument is that crystalline silicon solar technology, in conjunction with energy storage, will be the lowest-cost electricity source available and will drive the energy transition. \u201cWe don\u2019t need any hocus pocus that will potentially lower costs because we are already there.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He cites data, which will be published in an upcoming article he has co-written, showing that existing solar technologies will provide the cheapest LCOE everywhere in the world besides Scandinavia by 2030. Indeed, the average selling price of silicon-based solar modules has declined massively over the last two years, and the glut of manufacturing capacity may prevent it from rising much in the near future. The prices of BESS are also declining.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For Kopecek, the pendulum in Europe has swung away from industrial knowledge and experience towards scientific operations in laboratories. This is an issue, he says, because solar PV has become a mainstream, commoditised technology where the research now goes into system and module-level tweaking, rather than the fundamental building blocks of the technology.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Fundamentally, he believes that by the time perovskite products are ready to meet mainstream market demand, that demand will have been met by low-cost and abundant silicon and energy storage products.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cI\u2019m quite sure that they will make their way into the market, but there is no way they will drive our energy transition,\u201d he tells us.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, it is not just technological scepticism that makes Kopecek so \u201cemotional\u201d (as he puts it) about the trend towards perovskite research.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThe energy transition is really about terawatt-scale production of crystalline silicon solar technology and we cannot just depend on one or two countries like China and India,\u201d he says. \u201cWe [in Europe] must do it ourselves. For many years we have delivered the wrong message; \u2018we have lost the crystalline silicon battle, but we will go to perovskite which is the new big thing.\u2019 It is not.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Libertas project in Germany, in which Kopecek\u2019s ISC Konstanz was involved, has been investigating the feasibility of restoring a silicon solar manufacturing industry to Germany. He tells PV Tech Power that the project was hamstrung by discussions and deliberations over technology and the module efficiency needed for an economically viable product, to the point that it missed the window for funding in the German budget.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Kopecek claims that \u201csome lobbyists for new tech\u201d pushed for the technological change. \u201cThis is what is making me extremely angry,\u201d he says, pointing to a similar influence of thin-film \u201clobbyists\u201d in the US that have pushed for funding towards perovskite research.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In contrast to Emily Warren from NREL, who sees perovskite as a means of diversifying the solar supply chain away from China, Kopecek sees it as a roadblock to bringing silicon capacity onshore in the West, and Europe in particular.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Fabian Fertig says there are \u201cAlways people who say that new technology is never going to work. I\u2019m confident, looking at the technological details, that there\u2019s a good chance, and Europe does have an edge in [perovskite] technology.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For Fertig (who works for Qcells, a silicon solar manufacturer), the macroeconomic situation has done more to prevent Europe from creating a meaningful manufacturing base than perovskite R&amp;D. He says that while he \u201cis not an economist\u201d, the current selling price for silicon modules is too low to support European production.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cIf we look at technologies where Europe is at the forefront, where we are ahead of other markets, I would say money spent on perovskite-on-silicon is money well spent.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Will Norman asks if mass-scale deployment of perovskite technology is now imminent and whether it could unseat crystalline silicon as the dominant solar technology.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":161,"featured_media":149882,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7,45,6],"tags":[10605,1163,1773,10711,182,183,12758],"paywall-tags":[8671],"regions":[34,29,30,28],"industry-segments":[13,8,14,9724,9],"class_list":["post-149881","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-featured-articles","category-features","category-long-reads","tag-caelux","tag-nrel","tag-oxford-pv","tag-pepperoni","tag-perovskite","tag-tandem-cells","tag-tandem-module","paywall-tags-premium","regions-africa-middle-east","regions-americas","regions-asia-oceania","regions-europe","industry-segments-cell-processing","industry-segments-manufacturing","industry-segments-modules","industry-segments-new-technology","industry-segments-power-plants"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v25.5 (Yoast SEO v25.5) - 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